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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 11 at the 48

Minnesota Vikings 10 – New England Patriots 24

What Actually Happened

(6:15) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 11-L.Treadwell to NE 44 for 4 yards (24-S.Gilmore).

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.50 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 48, worth -2.17 EP
KICK -0.79 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.20 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 14, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.59 EP