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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 74

New England Patriots 10 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 6-R.Allen punts 52 yards to MIN 22, Center-49-J.Cardona. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 26 for 4 yards (18-M.Slater).

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.28 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 74, worth -4.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.29 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 32, worth -1.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP