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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 1

New England Patriots 7 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(5:48) 3-S.Gostkowski 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 3-Gostkowski 12th career 100-pt season, ties Akers, Hanson & Stover for 4th-most all-time.

The Three Options

GO +4.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.01 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 1, worth +0.54 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.09 EP