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MIA Away

Miami Dolphins

HC Adam Gase
@
GB Home

Green Bay Packers

HC Mike McCarthy
Sunday 2018-11-11 · 16:25 Lambeau Field, Green Bay US 🌨 Snow Spread 13.0 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

MIA
30.9%
GB
69.1%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIA offense: -0.074 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • QB edge to GB: Aaron Rodgers (GB) +0.098 vs Brock Osweiler (MIA) -0.079 EPA/dropback
  • GB defense: +0.055 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • GB offense: +0.039 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
  • MIA defense: +0.089 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

MIA 20
–
GB 25
Projected margin: GB by 5 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

MIA

Charles Harris DE Out Calf
Ryan Tannehill QB Out right Shoulder
Ted Larsen G Doubtful Neck
Kiko Alonso LB Questionable Ankle
A.J. Derby TE Questionable Foot
Jakeem Grant WR Questionable Achilles
Ja'Wuan James T Questionable Knee
Laremy Tunsil T Questionable Knee

GB

Kevin King CB Out Hamstring
Bryan Bulaga T Questionable Knee
Randall Cobb WR Questionable Hamstring
Blake Martinez LB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 12
–
GB 31

Prediction missed by 14 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:07 TD GB (6:07) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 17-D.Adams for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 0 – GB 6
  • Q1 01:22 FG MIA (1:22) 7-J.Sanders 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-M.Haack. MIA 3 – GB 7
  • Q2 15:00 TD GB (15:00) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 3 – GB 13
  • Q2 10:33 FG MIA (10:33) 7-J.Sanders 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-M.Haack. Penalty on GB-37-J.Jackson, Defensive Offside, declined. MIA 6 – GB 14
  • Q2 02:54 FG MIA (2:54) 7-J.Sanders 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-M.Haack. MIA 9 – GB 14
  • Q3 11:43 FG MIA (11:43) 7-J.Sanders 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-M.Haack. MIA 12 – GB 14
  • Q3 09:38 TD GB (9:38) 33-A.Jones right guard for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 12 – GB 20
  • Q3 07:31 TD GB (7:31) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 17-D.Adams for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 12 – GB 27
  • Q4 08:57 FG GB (8:57) 2-M.Crosby 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott. MIA 12 – GB 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 4 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (4:52) 2-M.Haack punts 39 yards to GB 31, Center-92-J.Denney. 38-T.Williams to 50 for 19 yards (85-A.Derby). FUMBLES (85-A.Derby), RECOVERED by MIA-88-L.Carroo at 50. 88-L.Carroo to 50 for no gain (37-J.Jackson).

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 16 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 91%

    (1:22) 7-J.Sanders 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-M.Haack.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%

    (10:33) 7-J.Sanders 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-M.Haack. Penalty on GB-37-J.Jackson, Defensive Offside, declined.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 2 at the 49
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 29%

    (5:36) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers sacked at GB 45 for -6 yards (sack split by 91-C.Wake and 94-R.Quinn).

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 2 at the 29
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 78%

    (2:54) 7-J.Sanders 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-M.Haack.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 13 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 41%

    (:40) 6-J.Scott punts 37 yards to MIA 7, Center-43-H.Bradley, downed by GB-42-O.Burks.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (13:20) 51-K.Fackrell reported in as eligible. 6-J.Scott punt is BLOCKED by 38-B.Bolden, Center-43-H.Bradley, RECOVERED by MIA-88-L.Carroo at GB 28. 88-L.Carroo to GB 28 for no gain (44-A.Morrison).

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 4 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 88%

    (11:43) 7-J.Sanders 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-M.Haack.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (5:51) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 88-L.Carroo. 88-L.Carroo up the middle to MIA 43 for 14 yards (32-T.Carson).

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 2 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 67%

    (2:22) 8-B.Osweiler pass short left to 83-N.O'Leary to GB 29 for 5 yards (28-T.Brown).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 19 at the 38
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 57%

    (15:00) 2-M.Haack punts 38 yards to end zone, Center-92-J.Denney, Touchback.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 3 at the 49
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 29%

    (11:08) (Punt formation) 50-B.Martinez reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 36-R.Greene. 36-R.Greene left end to MIA 23 for 26 yards (45-M.Hull).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 7 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 90%

    (8:57) 2-M.Crosby 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (7:32) 32-K.Drake right guard to MIA 37 for 3 yards (94-D.Lowry).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 13 at the 42 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 46%

    (3:07) (Shotgun) 8-B.Osweiler sacked at MIA 46 for -12 yards (93-R.Gilbert).