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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 19 at the 38

Miami Dolphins 12 – Green Bay Packers 28

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 2-M.Haack punts 38 yards to end zone, Center-92-J.Denney, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.54 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 38, worth -2.12 EP
KICK -0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model