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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 29

Miami Dolphins 6 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(2:54) 7-J.Sanders 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +1.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +3.95 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.40 EP
KICK +0.97 EP
What Happened
  • 78% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.92 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP