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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 13 at the 42

Miami Dolphins 12 – Green Bay Packers 31

What Actually Happened

(3:07) (Shotgun) 8-B.Osweiler sacked at MIA 46 for -12 yards (93-R.Gilbert).

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
What Happened
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.57 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 42, worth -1.46 EP
KICK -0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.80 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model