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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 16 at the 19

Miami Dolphins 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(1:22) 7-J.Sanders 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +0.60 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.08 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 19, worth -0.96 EP
KICK +1.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.66 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model