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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 7

Miami Dolphins 3 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(10:33) 7-J.Sanders 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-M.Haack. Penalty on GB-37-J.Jackson, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO +1.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.50 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 7, worth -0.30 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model