Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 70

Miami Dolphins 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(4:52) 2-M.Haack punts 39 yards to GB 31, Center-92-J.Denney. 38-T.Williams to 50 for 19 yards (85-A.Derby). FUMBLES (85-A.Derby), RECOVERED by MIA-88-L.Carroo at 50. 88-L.Carroo to 50 for no gain (37-J.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO -1.48 EP

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.27 EP
51% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 70, worth -4.12 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model