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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 13 at the 44

Green Bay Packers 14 – Miami Dolphins 9

What Actually Happened

(:40) 6-J.Scott punts 37 yards to MIA 7, Center-43-H.Bradley, downed by GB-42-O.Burks.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.18 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 44, worth -1.42 EP
KICK -0.07 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.37 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -1.78 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 12, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model