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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 49

Green Bay Packers 28 – Miami Dolphins 12

What Actually Happened

(11:08) (Punt formation) 50-B.Martinez reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 36-R.Greene. 36-R.Greene left end to MIA 23 for 26 yards (45-M.Hull).

The Three Options

GO +0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.95 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.43 EP
KICK -1.13 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 14, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model