4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 7 at the 20

Green Bay Packers 28 – Miami Dolphins 12

What Actually Happened

(8:57) 2-M.Crosby 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +1.32 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.04 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 20, worth -0.75 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30, worth -1.17 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model