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Los Angeles Chargers

HC Anthony Lynn
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Oakland Raiders

HC Jon Gruden
Sunday 2018-11-11 · 16:05 Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum, Oakland US 💨 Windy Spread -10.5 O/U 50.0

Win Probability

LAC
75.5%
OAK
24.5%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LAC offense: +0.189 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • QB edge to LAC: Derek Carr (LV) -0.030 vs Philip Rivers (LAC) +0.289 EPA/dropback
  • LV defense: +0.163 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • LV offense: -0.117 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • LV on 3 more days rest than LAC
  • Wind 16 mph

Predicted Final Score

LAC 27
–
OAK 16
Projected margin: LAC by 11 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

LAC

Joey Bosa DE Out Foot
Kyle Emanuel LB Questionable Hip
Trevor Williams CB Questionable Knee
Chris Landrum DE Questionable Hip
Darius Philon DT Questionable Ankle

OAK

No players on the report.

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LAC 20
–
OAK 6

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 17 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 02:56 FG LV (2:56) 8-D.Carlson 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend. LAC 0 – OAK 3
  • Q2 05:50 FG LAC (5:50) 4-M.Badgley 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones. LAC 3 – OAK 3
  • Q2 00:28 TD LAC (:28) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 13-K.Allen for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 9 – OAK 3
  • Q3 12:43 TD LAC (12:43) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 28-M.Gordon for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 16 – OAK 3
  • Q4 14:53 FG LV (14:53) 8-D.Carlson 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend. LAC 17 – OAK 6
  • Q4 07:16 FG LAC (7:16) 4-M.Badgley 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones. LAC 20 – OAK 6

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 4 at the 63
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (12:33) (Punt formation) 5-J.Townsend left end ran ob at LAC 21 for 42 yards (30-A.Ekeler).

  • Q1 LV 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 98%

    (8:08) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 17-D.Harris to LAC 1 for no gain (33-D.James).

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 5 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (6:35) 5-D.Jones punts 47 yards to LV 47, Center-47-M.Windt. 17-D.Harris to LAC 49 for 4 yards (31-A.Phillips). PENALTY on LV-41-K.Smith, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 49.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 4 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 77%

    (2:56) 8-D.Carlson 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (1:55) 5-D.Jones punts 46 yards to LV 28, Center-47-M.Windt. 17-D.Harris to LV 26 for -2 yards (30-A.Ekeler).

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 1 at the 14
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 94%

    (7:57) 28-M.Gordon left end pushed ob at LV 12 for 2 yards (98-F.Rucker; 59-T.Whitehead).

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 7 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 96%

    (5:50) 4-M.Badgley 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 4 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (3:46) 5-J.Townsend punts 57 yards to LAC 11, Center-47-T.Sieg. 12-T.Benjamin to LAC 18 for 7 yards (85-D.Carrier). PENALTY on LAC-48-N.Dzubnar, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at LAC 18.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 17 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (9:07) 5-J.Townsend punts 51 yards to LAC 25, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 12-T.Benjamin.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 5 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (5:56) 5-J.Townsend punts 54 yards to LAC 14, Center-47-T.Sieg. 12-T.Benjamin pushed ob at LAC 22 for 8 yards (85-D.Carrier). PENALTY on LAC-23-R.Jenkins, Unnecessary Roughness, 11 yards, enforced at LAC 22.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 2 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.19 EP
    p(convert) 65%

    (3:01) 5-D.Jones punts 38 yards to LV 19, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 17-D.Harris.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 9 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 95%

    (14:53) 8-D.Carlson 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 11 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 86%

    (7:16) 4-M.Badgley 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 5 at the 19 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 90%

    (4:13) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short right.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 12 at the 56 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (1:14) 5-D.Jones punts 40 yards to LV 16, Center-47-M.Windt. 17-D.Harris ran ob at LV 22 for 6 yards (30-A.Ekeler).