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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 63

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:33) (Punt formation) 5-J.Townsend left end ran ob at LAC 21 for 42 yards (30-A.Ekeler).

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP
What Happened
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.63 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model