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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 94

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(6:35) 5-D.Jones punts 47 yards to LV 47, Center-47-M.Windt. 17-D.Harris to LAC 49 for 4 yards (31-A.Phillips). PENALTY on LV-41-K.Smith, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 49.

The Three Options

GO -2.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth -0.19 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 94, worth -5.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

PUNT -2.90 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 52, worth -2.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model