4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 27

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(2:56) 8-D.Carlson 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.59 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 27, worth -0.98 EP
KICK +1.18 EP
What Happened
  • 77% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 37, worth -1.86 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model