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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 9

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(5:50) 4-M.Badgley 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +2.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.16 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 9, worth +0.08 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.69 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP