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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 57

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(3:01) 5-D.Jones punts 38 yards to LV 19, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 17-D.Harris.

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.21 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 57, worth -3.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 17, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.19 EP