4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 12 at the 56

Los Angeles Chargers 20 – Las Vegas Raiders 6

What Actually Happened

(1:14) 5-D.Jones punts 40 yards to LV 16, Center-47-M.Windt. 17-D.Harris ran ob at LV 22 for 6 yards (30-A.Ekeler).

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +0.72 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 56, worth -1.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 17, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model