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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 9 at the 12

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

What Actually Happened

(14:53) 8-D.Carlson 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.69 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.16 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 12, worth -0.03 EP
KICK +2.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.69 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model