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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Las Vegas Raiders
4th & 5 at the 19
Las Vegas Raiders 6 – Los Angeles Chargers 20
What Actually Happened
(4:13) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short right.
The Three Options
GO
+1.46 EP
What Happened
-
37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.71 EP
- 63% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 19, worth -0.47 EP
KICK
+1.84 EP
Model's Pick
- 90% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
- 10% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.04 EP
PUNT
-0.22 EP
- Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.39 EP
