Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 9 at the 74

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

(1:55) 5-D.Jones punts 46 yards to LV 28, Center-47-M.Windt. 17-D.Harris to LV 26 for -2 yards (30-A.Ekeler).

The Three Options

GO -1.94 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.56 EP
58% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 74, worth -4.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model