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Dallas Cowboys

HC Jason Garrett
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PHI Home

Philadelphia Eagles

HC Doug Pederson
Sunday 2018-11-11 · 20:20 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.5 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

DAL
30.1%
PHI
69.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to PHI: Carson Wentz (PHI) +0.164 vs Dak Prescott (DAL) -0.055 EPA/dropback
  • PHI on 8 more days rest than DAL
  • DAL offense: -0.037 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • PHI offense: +0.025 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DAL 22
–
PHI 26
Projected margin: PHI by 4 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

DAL

Tavon Austin WR Out Groin
Taco Charlton DE Out Shoulder
David Irving DE Out Ankle
Sean Lee LB Out Hamstring
Joe Thomas LB Out Foot
Connor Williams G Out Knee
Randy Gregory DE Questionable Knee
Geoff Swaim TE Questionable Knee

PHI

Sidney Jones CB Out Hamstring
Jalen Mills CB Out Foot
Darren Sproles RB Out Hamstring
Josh Sweat DE Questionable Hip
Lane Johnson T Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 27
–
PHI 20

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:02 FG DAL (7:02) 2-B.Maher 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 3 – PHI 0
  • Q2 03:45 FG DAL (3:45) 2-B.Maher 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 6 – PHI 0
  • Q2 01:38 FG PHI (1:38) 4-J.Elliott 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston. DAL 6 – PHI 3
  • Q2 00:21 TD DAL (:21) 4-D.Prescott up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 12 – PHI 3
  • Q3 09:39 FG PHI (9:39) 4-J.Elliott 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston. DAL 13 – PHI 6
  • Q3 02:12 TD PHI (2:12) (No Huddle) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 86-Z.Ertz for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 13 – PHI 12
  • Q4 11:47 TD DAL (11:47) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 21-E.Elliott for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 19 – PHI 13
  • Q4 07:31 TD PHI (7:31) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 86-Z.Ertz for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 20 – PHI 19
  • Q4 03:22 TD DAL (3:22) 21-E.Elliott right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 26 – PHI 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (12:53) 1-C.Johnston punts 49 yards to DAL 18, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-50-L.Reynolds. PENALTY on DAL-31-B.Jones, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at DAL 18.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 9 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (11:08) 6-C.Jones punts 46 yards to PHI 44, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 19-G.Tate pushed ob at DAL 44 for 12 yards (45-R.Smith).

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%

    (7:02) 2-B.Maher 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 5 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (4:23) 1-C.Johnston punts 39 yards to DAL 16, Center-45-R.Lovato. 11-C.Beasley to DAL 16 for no gain (88-D.Goedert). PENALTY on DAL-92-D.Armstrong, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 8 yards, enforced at DAL 16.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 6 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (15:00) 6-C.Jones punts 39 yards to PHI 26, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-14-L.Lenoir.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 1 at the 20
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 90%

    (11:54) 33-J.Adams up the middle to DAL 23 for -3 yards (27-J.Lewis; 54-J.Smith).

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 2 at the 69
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60%

    (10:23) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 38-J.Heath. 38-J.Heath up the middle to DAL 34 for 3 yards (83-J.Perkins).

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 13 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 95%

    (3:45) 2-B.Maher 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 10 at the 38
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 58%

    (1:38) 4-J.Elliott 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (13:08) 6-C.Jones punts 34 yards to PHI 45, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-14-L.Lenoir.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 7 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 97%

    (9:39) 4-J.Elliott 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 8 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 87%

    (7:43) 2-B.Maher 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 7 at the 35 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.73 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 65%

    (1:17) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 86-Z.Ertz to DAL 29 for 6 yards (38-J.Heath). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 16 at the 77 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (:53) 6-C.Jones punts 44 yards to PHI 33, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 19-G.Tate to PHI 32 for -1 yards (49-J.Olawale; 35-K.Frazier).