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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 35

Philadelphia Eagles 20 – Dallas Cowboys 27

What Actually Happened

(1:17) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 86-Z.Ertz to DAL 29 for 6 yards (38-J.Heath). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed.

The Three Options

GO +0.35 EP
What Happened
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +2.58 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 35, worth -0.90 EP
KICK +1.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 45, worth -1.31 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.73 EP