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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 65

Dallas Cowboys 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 6-C.Jones punts 39 yards to PHI 26, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-14-L.Lenoir.

The Three Options

GO -1.66 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.44 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 65, worth -3.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 23, worth -1.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model