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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 7 at the 7

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(7:02) 2-B.Maher 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.63 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 7, worth -0.16 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model