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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 69

Dallas Cowboys 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(10:23) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 38-J.Heath. 38-J.Heath up the middle to DAL 34 for 3 yards (83-J.Perkins).

The Three Options

GO -0.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.14 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 69, worth -4.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.95 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 27, worth -1.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model