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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 20

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(11:54) 33-J.Adams up the middle to DAL 23 for -3 yards (27-J.Lewis; 54-J.Smith).

The Three Options

GO +3.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.86 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 20, worth -0.46 EP
KICK +1.99 EP
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30, worth -0.95 EP
PUNT +0.23 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model