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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 13 at the 13

Dallas Cowboys 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(3:45) 2-B.Maher 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.68 EP
  • 24% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.51 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 13, worth -0.84 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 23, worth -1.24 EP
PUNT -0.81 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model