Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 14 at the 79

Dallas Cowboys 13 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

(13:08) 6-C.Jones punts 34 yards to PHI 45, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-14-L.Lenoir.

The Three Options

GO -2.74 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
70% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 79, worth -4.60 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model