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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 55

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(4:23) 1-C.Johnston punts 39 yards to DAL 16, Center-45-R.Lovato. 11-C.Beasley to DAL 16 for no gain (88-D.Goedert). PENALTY on DAL-92-D.Armstrong, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 8 yards, enforced at DAL 16.

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.02 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 55, worth -2.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 16, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model