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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 8

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – Dallas Cowboys 13

What Actually Happened

(9:39) 4-J.Elliott 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +2.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.51 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 8, worth +0.21 EP
KICK +2.06 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.57 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model