LAC @ SEA — 4th & Data

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HC Anthony Lynn

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Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll

Sunday 2018-11-04 · 16:05 CenturyLink Field, Seattle US 🌧 Rain Spread 1.0 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

LAC

60.5%

SEA

39.5%

🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

LAC offense: +0.196 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
Philip Rivers (LAC): +0.299 EPA/dropback in prior starts
LAC on 7 more days rest than SEA
SEA offense: +0.044 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
SEA defense: -0.041 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LAC 26

–

SEA 23

Projected margin: LAC by 3 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

LAC

Joey Bosa DE Out Foot

Chris Landrum DE Out Hip

Kyzir White LB Out Knee

Melvin Gordon RB Questionable Hamstring

SEA

Jordan Simmons G Doubtful Calf

Neiko Thorpe CB Doubtful Groin

Bradley McDougald S Questionable Knee

Chris Carson RB Questionable Hip

K.J. Wright LB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LAC 25

–

SEA 17

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 07:02 TD SEA (7:02) 74-G.Fant reported in as eligible. 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 18-J.Brown for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 0 – SEA 6
Q1 00:01 TD LAC (:01) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 16-Ty.Williams for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 6 – SEA 7
Q2 11:44 TD LAC (11:44) 28-M.Gordon right end for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on SEA-98-S.Stephen, Defensive Holding, declined. LAC 12 – SEA 7
Q2 01:17 TD LAC (1:17) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 81-M.Williams for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was inbounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. LAC 18 – SEA 7
Q2 00:04 FG SEA (:04) 11-S.Janikowski 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson. LAC 19 – SEA 10
Q4 06:52 TD LAC (6:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left intended for 83-D.Moore INTERCEPTED by 20-D.King at SEA 42. 20-D.King for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 25 – SEA 10
Q4 01:53 TD SEA (1:53) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 81-N.Vannett for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 25 – SEA 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q2 SEA 4th & 8 at the 76

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40%

(12:50) 4-M.Dickson punts 57 yards to LAC 19, Center-69-T.Ott. 20-D.King to LAC 17 for -2 yards (28-J.Coleman).
Q2 SEA 4th & 8 at the 82

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40%

(10:11) 4-M.Dickson punts 50 yards to LAC 32, Center-69-T.Ott. 20-D.King to LAC 34 for 2 yards (24-S.Luani). PENALTY on LAC-31-A.Phillips, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 34.
Q2 LAC 4th & 10 at the 76

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38%

(9:10) 5-D.Jones punts 53 yards to SEA 23, Center-47-M.Windt, out of bounds.
Q2 SEA 4th & 8 at the 33

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34% p(FG) 70%

(5:55) 11-S.Janikowski 51 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Q2 LAC 4th & 8 at the 57

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 39%

(4:55) 5-D.Jones punts 44 yards to SEA 13, Center-47-M.Windt, out of bounds.
Q2 SEA 4th & 8 at the 75

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 39%

(2:17) 4-M.Dickson punts 57 yards to LAC 18, Center-69-T.Ott. 20-D.King to LAC 35 for 17 yards (49-SM.Griffin; 59-J.Martin).
Q3 LAC 4th & 8 at the 66

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 41%

(12:39) 5-D.Jones punts 38 yards to SEA 28, Center-47-M.Windt. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 34 for 6 yards (24-T.Williams; 48-N.Dzubnar).
Q3 SEA 4th & 5 at the 61

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 45%

(11:02) 4-M.Dickson punts 46 yards to LAC 15, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.
Q3 LAC 4th & 4 at the 24

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 47% p(FG) 86%

(7:18) 6-C.Sturgis 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones.
Q3 SEA 4th & 13 at the 51

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29% p(FG) 26%

(2:34) 4-M.Dickson punts 46 yards to LAC 5, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.
Q4 LAC 4th & 8 at the 72

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 41%

(15:00) 5-D.Jones punts 42 yards to SEA 30, Center-47-M.Windt. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 30 for no gain (42-U.Nwosu; 47-M.Windt). PENALTY on SEA-36-A.King, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 30.
Q4 SEA 4th & 16 at the 73

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29%

(12:07) 4-M.Dickson punts 61 yards to LAC 12, Center-69-T.Ott. 20-D.King to LAC 12 for no gain (51-B.Mingo). PENALTY on LAC-24-T.Williams, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 6 yards, enforced at LAC 12.
Q4 LAC 4th & 15 at the 63

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30%

(8:00) 5-D.Jones punts 38 yards to SEA 25, Center-47-M.Windt. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 23 for -2 yards (11-G.Davis; 31-A.Phillips).
Q4 SEA 4th & 4 at the 30 late-game

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 45% p(FG) 77%

(4:25) (Shotgun) 27-M.Davis up the middle to LAC 22 for 8 yards (37-J.Addae, 20-D.King).
Q4 SEA 4th & 4 at the 16 late-game

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 43% p(FG) 94%

(2:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson scrambles up the middle to LAC 10 for 6 yards (92-B.Mebane).
Q4 SEA 4th & 6 at the 6 late-game

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

(1:53) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 81-N.Vannett for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 LAC 4th & 17 at the 60 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28%

(1:33) 5-D.Jones punts 43 yards to SEA 17, Center-47-M.Windt, out of bounds. PENALTY on LAC-24-T.Williams, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 17.