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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 61

Seattle Seahawks 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 19

What Actually Happened

(11:02) 4-M.Dickson punts 46 yards to LAC 15, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.40 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 20, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model