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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 17 at the 60

Los Angeles Chargers 25 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(1:33) 5-D.Jones punts 43 yards to SEA 17, Center-47-M.Windt, out of bounds. PENALTY on LAC-24-T.Williams, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 17.

The Three Options

GO -1.53 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +0.85 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 60, worth -2.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 19, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model