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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 8 at the 57

Los Angeles Chargers 12 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(4:55) 5-D.Jones punts 44 yards to SEA 13, Center-47-M.Windt, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.69 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 57, worth -3.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 17, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model