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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 16

Seattle Seahawks 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 25

What Actually Happened

(2:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson scrambles up the middle to LAC 10 for 6 yards (92-B.Mebane).

The Three Options

GO +1.64 EP
What Happened
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.50 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 16, worth -0.54 EP
KICK +1.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model