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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 24

Los Angeles Chargers 19 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(7:18) 6-C.Sturgis 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.59 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.35 EP
What Happened
  • 86% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 34, worth -1.73 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model