Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 16 at the 73

Seattle Seahawks 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 19

What Actually Happened

(12:07) 4-M.Dickson punts 61 yards to LAC 12, Center-69-T.Ott. 20-D.King to LAC 12 for no gain (51-B.Mingo). PENALTY on LAC-24-T.Williams, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 6 yards, enforced at LAC 12.

The Three Options

GO -2.33 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.20 EP
71% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model