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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Seattle Seahawks
4th & 13 at the 51
Seattle Seahawks 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 19
What Actually Happened
(2:34) 4-M.Dickson punts 46 yards to LAC 5, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.
The Three Options
GO
-0.92 EP
-
29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.43 EP
- 71% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 51, worth -2.71 EP
KICK
-1.44 EP
- 26% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
- 74% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT
-0.36 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.36 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
