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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 76

Los Angeles Chargers 12 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(9:10) 5-D.Jones punts 53 yards to SEA 23, Center-47-M.Windt, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.22 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.48 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 76, worth -4.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 34, worth -1.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model