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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
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Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
Sunday 2018-10-14 · 13:00 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread 10.5 O/U 40.5

Win Probability

BUF
33.8%
HOU
66.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BUF offense: -0.166 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • QB edge to HOU: Deshaun Watson (HOU) +0.115 vs Josh Allen (BUF) -0.207 EPA/dropback
  • HOU offense: -0.087 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • HOU defense: +0.080 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

BUF 20
–
HOU 24
Projected margin: HOU by 4 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

BUF

No players on the report.

HOU

Aaron Colvin CB Out Ankle
Brian Peters LB Out Ankle
Deshaun Watson QB Questionable Chest

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 13
–
HOU 20

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:48 TD HOU (4:48) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 10-D.Hopkins for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 0 – HOU 6
  • Q2 08:37 FG HOU (8:37) 7-K.Fairbairn 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel. BUF 0 – HOU 10
  • Q3 10:15 FG BUF (10:15) 4-S.Hauschka 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez. BUF 3 – HOU 10
  • Q3 02:18 FG BUF (2:18) 4-S.Hauschka 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez. BUF 6 – HOU 10
  • Q4 13:07 TD BUF (13:07) (Shotgun) 2-N.Peterman pass deep right to 11-Z.Jones for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 12 – HOU 10
  • Q4 01:37 FG HOU (1:37) 7-K.Fairbairn 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel. BUF 13 – HOU 13
  • Q4 01:30 TD HOU (1:30) (Shotgun) 2-N.Peterman pass short left intended for 13-K.Benjamin INTERCEPTED by 24-J.Joseph at BUF 28. 24-J.Joseph for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on HOU-90-J.Clowney, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs. BUF 13 – HOU 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 14 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 41%

    (11:16) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 41 yards to HOU 5, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-26-T.Jones.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 7 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (7:48) 8-T.Daniel punts 38 yards to BUF 36, Center-46-J.Weeks. 14-R.McCloud MUFFS catch, touched at BUF 40, RECOVERED by HOU-57-B.Scarlett at BUF 29. 57-B.Scarlett to BUF 29 for no gain (18-A.Holmes).

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 12 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (1:24) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 49 yards to HOU 19, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 21-T.Ervin pushed ob at HOU 20 for 1 yard (30-L.Pitts).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 8 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (13:49) 8-T.Daniel punts 25 yards to BUF 34, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 9 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 26%

    (10:23) 9-C.Bojorquez punt is BLOCKED by 50-T.Adams, Center-69-R.Ferguson, RECOVERED by HOU-57-B.Scarlett at BUF 35. 57-B.Scarlett to BUF 21 for 14 yards (18-A.Holmes).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 3 at the 14
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 95%

    (8:37) 7-K.Fairbairn 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%

    (10:15) 4-S.Hauschka 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 1 at the 52
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.30 EP
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 28%

    (7:30) 8-T.Daniel punts 42 yards to BUF 10, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-41-Z.Cunningham. (The Punt Hang-time was 5.0)

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 3 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (4:39) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 42 yards to HOU 41, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 21-T.Ervin to HOU 41 for no gain (30-L.Pitts). PENALTY on HOU-43-S.Wright, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 41.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 7 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (3:41) 8-T.Daniel punts 53 yards to BUF 13, Center-46-J.Weeks. 23-M.Hyde pushed ob at BUF 21 for 8 yards (57-B.Scarlett).

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 4 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 71%

    (2:18) 4-S.Hauschka 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 10 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (10:39) 8-T.Daniel punts 45 yards to BUF 14, Center-46-J.Weeks. 23-M.Hyde to BUF 14 for no gain (50-T.Adams). PENALTY on BUF-29-S.Neal, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at BUF 14.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 2 at the 59 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58%

    (4:08) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 51 yards to HOU 8, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-26-T.Jones.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 8 at the 8 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 97%

    (1:37) 7-K.Fairbairn 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.