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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 83

Buffalo Bills 3 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(4:39) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 42 yards to HOU 41, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 21-T.Ervin to HOU 41 for no gain (30-L.Pitts). PENALTY on HOU-43-S.Wright, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 41.

The Three Options

GO -1.97 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.58 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 83, worth -4.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.15 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 41, worth -2.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model