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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 2 at the 59

Buffalo Bills 13 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(4:08) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 51 yards to HOU 8, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-26-T.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.47 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 59, worth -2.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 18, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model