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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 14

Houston Texans 7 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(8:37) 7-K.Fairbairn 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.

The Three Options

GO +2.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.14 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 14, worth -0.47 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP