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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 34

Buffalo Bills 3 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(2:18) 4-S.Hauschka 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.90 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 34, worth -1.73 EP
KICK +0.56 EP
What Happened
  • 71% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 44, worth -2.38 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model