4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 9 at the 53

Buffalo Bills 0 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(10:23) 9-C.Bojorquez punt is BLOCKED by 50-T.Adams, Center-69-R.Ferguson, RECOVERED by HOU-57-B.Scarlett at BUF 35. 57-B.Scarlett to BUF 21 for 14 yards (18-A.Holmes).

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.91 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 53, worth -3.14 EP
KICK -1.84 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -3.00 EP
PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 15, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model