Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 74

Houston Texans 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(7:48) 8-T.Daniel punts 38 yards to BUF 36, Center-46-J.Weeks. 14-R.McCloud MUFFS catch, touched at BUF 40, RECOVERED by HOU-57-B.Scarlett at BUF 29. 57-B.Scarlett to BUF 29 for no gain (18-A.Holmes).

The Three Options

GO -1.81 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.88 EP
61% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 74, worth -4.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model