Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 59

Houston Texans 10 – Buffalo Bills 13

What Actually Happened

(10:39) 8-T.Daniel punts 45 yards to BUF 14, Center-46-J.Weeks. 23-M.Hyde to BUF 14 for no gain (50-T.Adams). PENALTY on BUF-29-S.Neal, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at BUF 14.

The Three Options

GO -1.20 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.74 EP
68% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 59, worth -3.02 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model